Poker Professionals | Poker is a 100% pure strategy game |
Let's start with the example of football (soccer). We take one good team and one bad team.
If these two teams play against each other 10 times, the worse team might win 3 games of the 10.
So is football a luck game now (cause the higher skilled team lost)? - NO, IT IS NOT! It's just normal that the better team wins not everytime, but more often. That is cause of a slight luck factor in football. But if these two teams play against each other many times, the better team will always win more often than the worse. (If we took that mathematical, we would say, the better team has a higher probability to win)
Now imagine that the winner of each match, get's $100 from the looser. The better team is bound to win money in the long run!
The way it is with two football teams, is exactly how it is with two poker players. The better player will always win in the long run.
Even roulette is no game of luck! It's a game
of strategy in witch the casino has the better strategy. The advantage
of their strategy is: having a higher probability to win than the
player. A billionair from the casinobusiness said: "A 0.001% higher
probability to win can bust the ritchest man, if he only plays long
enough."
What
is it, what makes the Casinos rich with roulette? It's the higher
probability to win, that let's them sleep well. That's all. In the long
run, the higher probability wins ALWAYS. The pure luck becomes equal
for everybody in the long run. The person with the better strategy will
win then.
Would
you throw a dice (with 6 numbers) with your friend 100 times when the
winner of each throw gets 1€ from the other and YOU only win with the
numbers 1 and 2 ?
You would never do that, because you only have 2
winning numbers out of 6. That's 2/6 = 33% winning chance. So you're
bound to loose in the long run!
The same is with poker, if you
always bet all your money with the worse hand, you have a simular
probability to win (just ca. 33%), so you are bound to loose in the
long run too.
Now the other way round: If you always
bet your money with the better hand, you have a ca. 66% winning chance.
Now you are bound to win!
Well, the next
argument, people who think "poker is luck" say is: "It depends on the
cards you are dealt!". That's absolutely wrong! Every player is dealt
the same good and bad hands in the long run. Cause everybody has the
same probability to get dealt the very good hands and the bad hands.
The
good players (sharks) win in the long run always because they are
making better decisions than their oppenents (they don't get better
cards). These better decisions, gives them a higher win percentage than
their oppenents.
Some players risk their whole money with a 30%
probability to win, the good players bet their money when they feel
that they have the better hand than their oppenent, what means that
they have a higher win probability. Of course, there are many more
things to consider, for example pot odds (what even can make playing a
worse hand profitable) and bluffing, so you can even win with the worst
possible hand if you read your oppenent well.
If you still do not believe that everybody has the same "luck" and "bad luck" in the long run, try it yourself:
1.
If you make a coinflip 10 times, it's possible that it shows the head
all ten times. But if you make the coinflip 500 times, (= the long run)
you'll nearly get a head to number proportion of 50% - 50%
The more coinflips you make, the closer the proportion will become 50% - 50%
2.
Now take 3 memory cards. Two "car" picture cards and one "tree" picture
card. Turn them over so that you don't see the pictures and shuffle them. Now you have a 66%
chance to draw a "car" and 33% to draw the "tree". Now draw 500
times one card and shuffle them after each draw. Note down each time
you draw a "car" and each time you draw the "tree". The car will always
win with ca. 1/3 more wins.
Next question by nonpoker players: How to make good decisions? You don't know the oppenents hand!
1. By watching the
oppenents game, good players learn, which cards an oppenent plays and
how he plays them. To explain it to non poker players, let's take this
example:
A simple game: the highest card wins. (The range of cards is (starting
with the highest): Ace --> King --> Queen --> Jack --> Ten
--> 9 --> 7 --> 6 --> 5 --> 4 --> 3 --> 2)
Now you have a "King" and by watching your oppenents game all the time,
you know he could now have an "Ace", "King", "Jack" or "Ten".
With your King, you beat "Jack" and "Ten" (two cards) but loose to
"Ace" (one card). Now you know your "King" is good, because you win
agains two possible oppenents hands and only loose to one. With knowing
that, you can make the right decision and a profitable play.
2. There are many more ways how to make profitable decisions.
Like
for example: If you know in poker, that your oppenent will "fold" his
hand to a bluff 2 out of 3 times in a certain situation, this bluff is
worthwhile! You win two times the "pot" (money) and only loose one time
money by your bluff.
This can be taken further: Let's say your
oppenent "folds" his hand in a certain situation every second time to a
bluff. If you now bluff $5 into a pot of $10, you win $10 every second
time but only loose $5 the other time.
Poker is a pure strategy game, even in the following special situations:
What is when someone has a 100% chance to win with his hand on the river? Then some people make less money from their oppenents, and some more.
What is if on the river, both players have the same hand, so nobody has a better one? In this case, a better player can still win the whole pot, by raising his oppenent out of the hand.